Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.019304 0.021942 0.024821 0.028197 0.032052 0.036318 0.041402
2025-02-16 0.014975 0.018536 0.022774 0.028199 0.034974 0.043173 0.053880
2025-02-23 0.012664 0.016603 0.021574 0.028328 0.037294 0.048834 0.064884
2025-03-02 0.010865 0.014923 0.020295 0.027954 0.038647 0.053118 0.074320
2025-03-09 0.009805 0.014022 0.019841 0.028497 0.041122 0.058983 0.086379
2025-03-16 0.008715 0.012917 0.018929 0.028214 0.042296 0.063018 0.096130
2025-03-23 0.008130 0.012453 0.018852 0.029084 0.045173 0.069736 0.110517
2025-03-30 0.007203 0.011363 0.017711 0.028183 0.045196 0.072043 0.118190
2025-04-06 0.006532 0.010594 0.016969 0.027800 0.045947 0.075492 0.127971
2025-04-13 0.005817 0.009678 0.015898 0.026758 0.045477 0.076853 0.134313
2025-04-20 0.005566 0.009496 0.015996 0.027653 0.048327 0.083998 0.151351
2025-04-27 0.005279 0.009224 0.015912 0.028215 0.050630 0.090384 0.167661
2025-05-04 0.005035 0.009012 0.015923 0.028972 0.053401 0.097956 0.187169
2025-05-11 0.004666 0.008544 0.015443 0.028792 0.054441 0.102483 0.201434
2025-05-18 0.004382 0.008202 0.015155 0.028933 0.056081 0.108262 0.218744
2025-05-25 0.004057 0.007752 0.014624 0.028551 0.056655 0.112019 0.232348
2025-06-01 0.003880 0.007569 0.014578 0.029105 0.059130 0.119753 0.255021
2025-06-08 0.003618 0.007197 0.014133 0.028816 0.059851 0.123978 0.270658
2025-06-15 0.003510 0.007120 0.014260 0.029705 0.063102 0.133761 0.299528
2025-06-22 0.003221 0.006649 0.013556 0.028784 0.062397 0.135040 0.309401
2025-06-29 0.003010 0.006323 0.013119 0.028393 0.062801 0.138750 0.325244
2025-07-06 0.002754 0.005881 0.012403 0.027328 0.061596 0.138756 0.332325
2025-07-13 0.002695 0.005856 0.012573 0.028243 0.064978 0.149496 0.366528